The time of emergence of climate-induced hydrologic change in Australian rivers

Abstract

Climate change impacts on river flows are leading to substantial changes in water availability for human and natural systems. The significance of these impacts largely depends on the degree of change relative to natural variability. The ‘Time of Emergence’ (ToE) is the point in time (past or future) when the signal of climate change emerges from the noise of background variability. The ToE has been assessed for some climate variables but rarely streamflows. Here we investigate ToE of changes in streamflow across Australia for various characteristic periods relevant to different water management objectives. We assess the uncertainty in ToE estimates from different emissions pathways and a lar..